F1 Australian GP – strategy analysis: Red Bull makes right call, Ferrari fails to capitalize. Today’s strategies were largely dictated by the evolving track conditions.

The rain gave us a particularly intense and exciting first race. Naturally, some teams benefited greatly, while others suffered heavily, but that’s part of the game, part of the sport. The final result isn’t a perfect reflection of the true performance levels on track, but if we analyze the race carefully, there are still important conclusions to be drawn.

Key moments of the race

Today’s strategies were largely dictated by the evolving track conditions. The race started on a wet surface, and all drivers opted for intermediates until well past the halfway point. Most pit stops for slick tires occurred around laps 34-35, taking advantage of the Safety Car caused by Fernando Alonso’s mistake. Up to this point, nothing surprising had happened.

Albert Park, being a semi-street circuit, is particularly prone to graining, especially on the softer compounds. That’s why most drivers, with over 20 laps remaining, opted for the Hard C3 tires.

However, some drivers chose to fit the Medium C4 tires, including Verstappen, Tsunoda, Albon, Hulkenberg, Bortoleto, and Lawson. Haas, on the other hand, took a strange approach. Initially, they decided not to pit either of their cars and stayed out on intermediates. Then, when Bearman and Ocon were told they could un-lap themselves, both pitted for Mediums. Since they were already at the back, this forced Bearman to un-lap himself twice—not exactly ideal (Haas, like Ferrari, has a reputation for complicating things unnecessarily).

The race resumed on lap 42, and teams immediately informed drivers that rain was coming soon—which it did, on lap 43, triggering chaos that would irreversibly change the race’s outcome.

Between lap 43 and lap 48 (under the Safety Car deployed after incidents involving Lawson and Bortoleto), the top 10 standings shifted dramatically:

• Lap 43: Norris, Piastri, Verstappen, Russell, Tsunoda, Leclerc, Albon, Lewis Hamilton, Gasly, Antonelli

• Lap 48: Norris, Verstappen, Russell, Albon, Antonelli, Stroll, Hulkenberg, Gasly, Hamilton, Leclerc (with Piastri down in 13th)

Hamilton’s idea was good, but it wasn’t enough for a podium or victory

In just five laps, everything changed. The track suddenly became wet. Norris and Piastri nearly crashed at the same corner on the same lap. Piastri lost control, went off into the grass, and dropped to the back of the field. Norris recovered and immediately pitted for intermediates, while Verstappen stayed out on mediums and took the lead.

Meanwhile, Leclerc also made a mistake, going off track and falling to P11. By lap 46, the situation was:

• Verstappen (Mediums) leading, 18 seconds ahead of Norris (Intermediates)

• Hamilton (Hards) in second place, 10 seconds ahead of Norris

The logical decision, as McLaren demonstrated, was to pit immediately for intermediates. If you need proof, just look at those who switched along with the eventual race winner: Russell, Albon, Antonelli, Stroll, and Hulkenberg—all of whom scored points.

At the end of the lap, Verstappen switched to intermediates, but Hamilton stayed out on slicks. The idea was good, but while Red Bull made the right call by pitting Max, Ferrari failed to do the same for Lewis.

Had Hamilton pitted at the same time as Verstappen, he would have rejoined between Albon and Stroll—meaning he could have fought for P4 (he was P8 before the rain).

Leclerc’s race was compromised by his mistake

For Leclerc, the situation was different. His off-track excursion cost him too much time. Even if he had followed Verstappen into the pits, he wouldn’t have gained much—he still would have been behind Hulkenberg and Gasly, just as he was later.

In a way, the Safety Car saved Ferrari. The track had already become intermediate conditions, and the proof was Norris catching Hamilton just before the SC was deployed due to the Lawson and Bortoleto incidents.

Had the Safety Car not come out, Ferrari drivers might have fallen to the back of the pack—or even retired altogether. The Maranello team was in disarray. The rain and Leclerc’s mistake likely distracted the pit wall, but in any case, Ferrari was never in contention for victory or the podium. At best, Hamilton could have finished P4, but nothing more.

Ferrari lacked pace

Hamilton stated that the SF-25 was out of its operating window, and that’s probably true. Pirelli has made improvements, but tire performance is still highly sensitive to temperature changes. Even Verstappen seemed to struggle at one point.

During the first stint, Verstappen was surprisingly fast behind Norris, but after going wide and losing a position to Piastri, he completely lost his rhythm, settling into P3.

Many questioned what caused this issue, but the most likely explanation is that he fell out of the tires’ working window. This would also explain his strong recovery after switching tires and his ability to fight McLaren at the end. Norris may have been slowed by damage from his earlier lap 43 mistake, but in the final stint, Verstappen easily passed Russell and focused only on chasing Norris.

Pirelli’s Motorsport Director, Mario Isola, comments

Pirelli’s Mario Isola analyzed the race for the company’s official channels:

“From a technical standpoint, the 2025 intermediate tires allowed drivers to push for many laps, even on a drying track. We saw only minor graining on the front left, but overall, tire degradation was very limited. On the slicks, however, we couldn’t gather much data due to the short stints.”

“Now we prepare for Shanghai, which will be a very different challenge compared to Melbourne. It will be a Sprint weekend, on a brand-new surface that we still need to analyze,” added Pirelli’s Motorsport Director.