Race pace and strategy analysis of Australian GP: the choice that could have secured Ferrari a podium finish. The major differences between teams and drivers seen in Melbourne.

The Melbourne Grand Prix is only the first of the 24 races scheduled in the 2025 Formula 1 season. It would be wrong to draw conclusions, but the track has provided answers to many doubts circulating in the paddock after the pre-season testing session at the Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir. Through the analysis of race pace and strategies in the Australian Grand Prix, we can observe the major differences between teams and drivers seen today. For us Ferrari fans, the situation could not have been worse, but it is better to wait for more significant weekends to judge the 2025 Formula 1 project.

In such cases, the start phase becomes even more complicated and crucial. Max Verstappen, as seen in the graph, is one of the best at this, and the combination of reaction and traction allowed him to overtake Oscar Piastri at the start and take provisional second place. The two Ferrari SF-25 cars had an excellent start, with Charles Leclerc immediately passing Alex Albon and Yuki Tsunoda. Lewis Hamilton was blocked by car #16 at Turn 1 and had to fall in behind Alex Albon’s Williams, which kept him behind for more than half the race.

This time, Lando Norris does not make a mistake at the start and immediately builds a good gap. Having track position in these conditions is a crucial advantage as it provides clean air but, most importantly, better visibility. Williams struggled the most in this phase, as Alex Albon had already been passed by Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton before even reaching Turn 1.

Now let’s move on to the race pace analysis. Even though rain does not allow for a perfect assessment of each car’s performance, an initial comparison can still be made based on the differences observed in the first round of the 2025 Formula 1 championship. The analysis of race pace in the Australian Grand Prix does not predict what we will see for the rest of the season, but it helps identify the best-performing cars in these conditions and how the drivers made a difference.

The graph highlights and compares the performance of each driver throughout the race. It shows the range of lap times in which their pace stabilized, but more importantly, the average maintained over the entire race distance, which is represented by the horizontal line within the boxes.

Almost the entire Grand Prix was run on intermediate tires, which once again proved to be perfect for damp track conditions that gradually dried out. The first stint for nearly all drivers lasted 33-34 laps and ended only because teams opted to switch to medium or hard tires following the deployment of the Safety Car. The continuous formation of a dry racing line, combined with the tendency of intermediate tires to behave more like slicks as they wear, allowed drivers to consistently improve their lap times.

The first noticeable factor is that, after an initial phase with similar lap times, Lando Norris pulled away from Max Verstappen and, along with his McLaren teammate, created a significant gap to the rest of the field. McLaren remained competitive even on a dry track. Despite using hard tires, they quickly reached their optimal operating window. In the final stint, Max Verstappen was very close to the British driver who made a mistake. At certain moments, he seemed capable of attacking, but Lando Norris managed everything flawlessly today.

Ferrari, with Charles Leclerc, also had to contend with Mercedes. At several points in the race, George Russell was clearly faster and more consistent, while the Monegasque driver alternated between laps matching the Briton’s pace and others that were several tenths slower. The strength of Mercedes’ race pace is further confirmed by Kimi Antonelli’s performance. His pace was slightly compromised by traffic, but his recovery from 16th to 4th place highlights a competitive Mercedes in these conditions.

Williams also entered the fight with the top teams, thanks to Alexander Albon. Car #23 managed the first part of the race excellently, showing solid consistency in his lap times. This impression was confirmed in the final stint, where he was even faster than Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari and, at times, on par with the two Mercedes. A comparison with Carlos Sainz would have been useful to further validate Williams’ potential, but the Australian Grand Prix ended prematurely for the former Ferrari driver.

Different strategies and interpretations of weather and track conditions played a crucial role. There were no doubts about the choice of wet tires, as all teams opted for intermediates. The first real difficulties arose when deciding to switch to slicks. In these situations, timing and tire compound selection are critical. Pitting a lap too early or too late can cost an entire race.

The first pit stop of the race occurred for almost all drivers during the first Safety Car period. The track was drying, and slick tires were fitted. Among the top teams, different choices were made. Ferrari and McLaren opted for the already used white tire, while Mercedes went for a new hard tire. Max Verstappen, on the other hand, chose the yellow tire to attempt an attack, but without success.

The dry track window lasted only a few laps, and by lap 44, several drivers entered the pits to switch back to intermediates. Among them were the Mercedes, McLaren, Alex Albon, Nico Hulkenberg, Lance Stroll, and Oliver Bearman. The track still had some dry sections, but Lando Norris gained significant time on the rivals who stayed out.

At this stage came Ferrari’s big mistake. Max Verstappen pitted on lap 46, right after Fernando Alonso’s crash. The two Ferrari drivers, after a long consultation with the pit wall, decided to stay out, perhaps hoping for a red flag. The decision turned out to be completely wrong. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc returned under the Safety Car period after the group had bunched up. The two re-entered in 9th and 10th positions with only 10 laps remaining.

As some final conclusions, the race pace analysis of the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne has provided us with some initial answers. As expected, McLaren is the team to beat and seems to be strong in all conditions. Lando Norris is in better form than last year and appears determined to challenge for the Drivers’ Championship. The usual Max Verstappen performs even when the car doesn’t support him, but we will have to see the Red Bull in conditions where the driver no longer makes a difference.

The comparison between Lando Norris and his rivals seems brutal. However, we must remember that in these races, lap times are influenced by numerous variables. For Ferrari, the weekend at the Albert Park circuit is certainly a huge blow, given the predictions that had them as one of the favorites this weekend. Lewis Hamilton’s stint was affected by Alex Albon’s traffic, but Charles Leclerc‘s stint with clear track was not more reassuring. The most impressive result, aside from Lando Norris’ performance, is from Kimi Antonelli, despite a spin and several overtakes.

This analysis completes the Australian Grand Prix. We will return next week with the Chinese Grand Prix, where we will have different lap time data. The probability is that we will have a dry race, allowing us to observe more accurate data regarding the forces at play in this start of the 2025 Formula 1 championship.