Bahrain test 2025: what lap count reveals about balance of power ahead of Australian GP. F1 testing: as always, the numbers must be analyzed with caution.

The 2025 Formula 1 pre-season winter testing session in Bahrain provided the first clues about the balance of power for the upcoming Formula 1 season, which is approaching rapidly. The start is set for Friday, March 14, when the first free practice session at the 5.278-kilometre Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne will take place, an essential session since some teams left the three days in Sakhir with many unresolved questions.

As always, the numbers must be analyzed with caution, but some trends clearly emerge from the data collected over the three days of testing in Bahrain. One crucial detail, which may have been somewhat overlooked, concerns the mileage covered by the new cars. In this regard, Mercedes stands out with a return to mileage levels reminiscent of its dominant years. Conversely, it is surprising how little distance Red Bull covered, ranking last in the lap count.

With a total of 458 laps, Mercedes was the team that covered the most kilometers in testing. This figure recalls the Anglo-German team’s winning seasons when their reliability and data-gathering ability were decisive strengths. One only has to think back to the early years of the turbo-hybrid era: while the Silver Arrows racked up mileage thanks to a more advanced and solid power unit, rivals spent long periods in the garage dealing with the propulsion failures typical of a new generation of engines.

However, the comparisons end there. Unlike those years, the outlook for the pure competitiveness of the W16 is less encouraging for the team led by Toto Wolff. Despite the fact that the new Mercedes F1 car appears solid and consistent in long runs, its lap times do not seem to match those of McLaren, which, as explained in various analyses, currently emerges as the best-performing car.

The most surprising data from the tests concerns Red Bull, which, with only 304 laps, was the team that completed the fewest. For a team that has dominated the scene in recent years with reliable and extremely fast cars, this is a warning sign. Technical issues and minor setbacks limited their work program, preventing rookie Liam Lawson from gaining the valuable experience he would have needed ahead of his Formula 1 debut with the Austrian side.

This does not necessarily mean that the RB21 single-seater will not be competitive, but the fact that the former world champion team struggled in winter testing is not a sign to be overlooked. Moreover, it became clear that there is still work to be done. The team led by Pierre Wache did not obtain the desired results from the new floor and spent a lot of time comparing two front wing specifications, which still require further evaluation, as the final version has yet to be determined. On the last day of testing, Max Verstappen appeared quite frustrated upon realizing that the car is not yet where he would like it to be. In Milton Keynes, the coming days will be filled with careful considerations.

Behind Mercedes, Haas with 457 laps and Racing Bulls with 454 laps demonstrated great reliability, while Ferrari and McLaren stopped at 382 and 381 laps, respectively. The Woking team completed its work program without major issues, whereas the Italian side ended the final day early at the 5.412-kilometre Bahrain International Circuit in Sakhir. This prevented Lewis Hamilton from conducting a proper race simulation, which could have a significant impact, especially in the early part of the 2025 Formula 1 season, given that the Briton has yet to develop the desired connection with the team and the car. Additionally, Ferrari’s new suspension configuration, namely pull-rod at the front, requires further evaluation, as the SF-25 remains a work in progress at this stage of the championship.

Alpine and Williams accumulated a good number of kilometers, while Kick Sauber and Aston Martin ranked near the bottom of the lap count, just above Red Bull. The concern for these teams is not just the low mileage but also the performance displayed. Neither the Swiss nor the British car appears to have made significant progress compared to last year. In fact, in the specific case of the AMR25, the step backward seems quite clear.

Mercedes, the marathon runner of these tests, emerges with a vast amount of data to analyze, which is generally a positive sign at this early stage of the season. Red Bull, on the other hand, has little information to work with, which could prove costly at the start of the championship. Their ability to react will be crucial as they aim to end the current regulatory era on a high note, provided Ferrari and McLaren don’t have other plans.

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