Strategy analysis: mediums pushed to limit, no one wanted to make first stop | F1 Qatar GP. Why drivers pushed the Medium tires to their limits in Qatar.

The Qatar GP surprised both engineers and fans with the unexpected durability of the C2 Medium tire during the first stint. While this initially made the race somewhat monotonous, the subsequent punctures suffered by Sainz and Hamilton created a highly uncertain scenario that kept us on edge until the finish.

At this point, it’s difficult to determine whether the punctures were caused by excessive tire wear or debris on the track. Pirelli’s motorsport director, Mario Isola, addressed the issue: “During the race, both Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton experienced punctures on their front left tires. We will thoroughly analyze the remains of those tires, as well as a selection of others, following our standard procedure. Our technicians in Milan will also rely on telemetry data and onboard footage. We will carry out the usual checks regarding the stress placed on the tires.”

Strategy Recap

The most common strategy was the Medium-Hard combination, used by race winner Verstappen, Leclerc, Piastri, Gasly, Sainz, Zhou, Norris, and Hamilton. Russell opted for a Medium-Hard-Hard strategy, having pitted early and later switched to a new C1 set under the Safety Car.

Alonso and Bottas chose Medium-Hard-Medium, avoiding a stint on the C1 tire, with Alonso using it for just one lap. Tsunoda and Lawson went with Medium-Hard-Soft, while Albon adopted Medium-Soft-Soft. Retirements included Nico Hulkenberg, Sergio Perez (reportedly due to a hydraulic issue), Stroll, Colapinto, and Ocon.

Medium Tires Pushed to the Limit

This analysis focuses on understanding why drivers pushed the Medium tires to their limits. While it’s not certain that tire wear caused Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton’s punctures, it appears to have been a contributing factor, so it’s worth exploring why this situation arose.

Pirelli had initially estimated the first pit stop to occur between laps 16 and 24. It was thought possible to extend this slightly, but no one expected stints of over 27-28 laps on the C2. The reason for pushing beyond the predicted limit is straightforward.

An undercut was expected to be highly effective, but for it to work, drivers needed clear track after rejoining. This didn’t happen after Russell’s pit stop, where a slow tire change on the rear right cost him about five extra seconds (total stop time: 7 seconds). He rejoined behind Alonso and, despite being faster, was forced to match Fernando’s pace due to the difficulty of overtaking in Lusail. Seeing this, other drivers avoided pitting early to stay out of traffic, stretching the C2 to its limit.

Mario Isola partially echoed this analysis: “The track is very demanding in terms of energy exerted on the tires and tread wear. This combination of factors can create a situation where wear reaches critical levels, with teams trying to extend the first stint as much as possible to maximize results.”

Max Verstappen and Lando Norris pushed the compound to its limit, but Max had the better pace. Just before the punctures for Sainz and Hamilton, Lando Norris’s Mediums were beginning to degrade, and he would have needed to pit soon anyway.

Fernando Alonso Confirms a One-Stop Race

The aftermath of Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton’s punctures is clear: those who stayed on Hards without switching to a new set of Mediums in the final stages made the right decision. Making an additional stop under such frequent Safety Car periods would have been counterproductive and cost positions. Fernando Alonso, for instance, fell from being ahead of Russell to finishing behind Gasly and Sainz after his double stop.

Fernando and Aston Martin misjudged the Hard tire’s potential. The C1 was the best compound for the final stint. Lando Norris, for example, set his fastest lap on the 56th lap with this compound, completing 21 laps on it with a time of 1:22.384.