Why Ferrari decided against switching to medium tires for final stint in F1 Qatar GP. Ferrari gets the strategy right by not switching to mediums in Qatar.

Scuderia Ferrari did not win the Qatar Grand Prix. However, the 23rd round of the 2024 Formula 1 championship concluded with a partial smile. The Prancing Horse arrived in Losail with high hopes, but they faced a layout that was not favorable for the SF-24 car, as the Arabian circuit that clearly favored McLaren and Red Bull. And indeed, the two teams proved to be more technically prepared. The Milton Keynes team, to be fair, struggled to understand anything during the sole practice session. It was a disastrous Friday, with a lackluster qualifying performance.

Saturday also started poorly, with the four-time Formula 1 world champion having to settle for eighth place, even behind the surprising Haas of German driver Nico Hulkenberg. Then came the technical “miracle” from the Austrian F1 team: a setup change that transformed the RB20 and allowed the Dutchman to make a difference. A great victory, deserved on the track, overcoming the FIA’s unfair penalty and George Russell’s double play. For McLaren, however, things went somewhat differently.

The sprint race double win suggested that securing the constructors’ championship would be a formality. However, Sunday’s race execution nullified Woking’s efforts. Oscar Piastri was unlucky, as the Safety Car benefited almost all the leading drivers except him. As for Lando Norris, once again, we must criticize the Briton. Lando claims he is not stupid and knows the rules. And we believe him, of course. But failing to notice the yellow flag is a grave error that ruined his race.

He then performed a remarkable recovery in just over 10 laps, reaching 10th place and earning the additional point for the fastest lap. However, his oversight cost the British team leading the championship far too much. This situation keeps Ferrari’s dream of catching the title alive. Yet, the Maranello team was not flawless during the Qatari weekend either. In the first qualifying session, they failed to make the tires work, and the Sprint Race went as we know. In the second qualifying session, they sorted out the tire issue, but the result was even worse.

Ferrari did not have great optimism for the 300 kilometer distance. They started behind the two McLaren cars, and the SF-24’s pace was not good enough to beat the MCL38s on the track. Additionally, bad luck struck. We refer to the slow puncture on the front left tire of car number 55. The tire delaminated, forcing Carlos Sainz to drive half a lap very slowly to reach the pits. The Spaniard obviously lost ground and, once back on track, found himself in seventh position. For Charles Leclerc, fortunately, things went much better.

Oscar Piastri made his stop before the Safety Car came out, taking the estimated time required for the tire change and pit-lane transit. Charles Leclerc, on the other hand, pitted under double yellow flag conditions, with a shorter time frame that allowed him to return to the track ahead of the Australian. Shortly after, Lando Norris received a 10-second stop-and-go penalty, and the Ferrari driver moved up to second place behind Max Verstappen. From that point on, the Dutchman pulled away, and Charles Leclerc did a great job defending against Oscar Piastri, who stayed close until the finish line. A second place that’s worth its weight in gold.

At this point, a question about strategy arises: could Ferrari have done more tactically? Was there a chance to aim for victory? Let’s clarify. There was an option Ferrari considered but ultimately discarded. Charles Leclerc, with the Safety Car on track, could have made another stop to switch to medium tires when the group was forced to pass through the pit-lane to allow the marshals to clean the track. In fact, according to the regulations, the number 16 SF-24 car could have stopped at that moment.

Moreover, analyzing the GPS data regarding the drivers’ track positions, Charles Leclerc could have maintained his position over Oscar Piastri. Observing the gap between them, it is clear that the Monegasque had a margin of over 5 seconds once the pit-limiter was activated at 80 kilometers per hour. Considering an average stop time of about 2.5 seconds, the Monegasque driver could have switched to mediums, having already fulfilled the requirement to use a different compound. This would have allowed him to tackle the final 21 laps with a softer, more performance-oriented tire in terms of pace.

Speaking to the media, Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur clarified that Ferrari’s pit wall considered this possibility. However, the remote garage deemed it more appropriate to stay on the hards, a decision shared by the rest of the grid except for Fernando Alonso, who, despite being on mediums, was unable to gain positions on track. This choice had a clear rationale: giving Charles’ car the yellow-marked Pirelli tires for the final stint of the Qatar Grand Prix would have required extra care to activate the tires, necessitating a slow introduction.

Hard compounds have a wider operating window. This means they could be pushed harder right away without fear of shortening their lifespan. With mediums, the risk of doing so was very high, potentially disrupting temperatures and failing to prevent graining from setting in. Based on the data, considering the Sprint Race and the first stint of Sunday’s race, Ferrari had to carry out substantial tire management on several corners of the track during the first ten laps before gradually lowering lap times.

Such a situation would have severely challenged the Ferrari driver, significantly increasing the likelihood of being overtaken by Oscar Piastri and subsequently losing touch with the Australian in the following laps, as well as with Max Verstappen, without then being able to capitalize on the extra grip of the mediums at the end. For this reason, we “absolve” Ferrari and we are also convinced that in this case, the Maranello pit wall made the right decision to continue on the Hard tires. A strategy that might have seemed conservative or defensive but one that was, in reality, the correct move. After all, they secured a podium finish in second place, which was far from guaranteed before the start of the race in Lusail.

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