F1 Melbourne GP race pace analysis: unclear pecking order but one certainty. The Melbourne GP race pace analysis.

Once again, rain broke the monotony of a Grand Prix that, in its early stages, was disappointing in terms of spectacle. The peculiar track conditions and numerous incidents, especially among rookies, led to several long safety car periods, preventing a clear assessment of the real pecking order on track. However, one thing is evident: McLaren is confirming itself as the strongest team in the championship, followed by a Red Bull that relies solely on Max Verstappen. Mercedes appears solid but still distant from the top two teams, while Ferrari, after spending the race chasing George Russell’s Mercedes, fell apart in the final laps due to disastrous strategy management, capping off a completely disappointing performance.

A glimpse of the Australian Grand Prix race pace was visible until lap 34, before chaos from safety cars and rain made any consistent reference impossible.

The start of the race: tire management and leaders’ pace
In the early part of the Grand Prix, all teams focused on avoiding overheating the intermediate tires as the track gradually dried. The uncertainty over further rain showers prevented teams from risking an early pit stop for slicks.

Right from the start, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri set a race pace significantly faster than the rest, quickly creating a gap behind them. After closely following Lando Norris, Max Verstappen began to struggle, making a mistake that allowed Oscar Piastri to overtake him. From that moment on, the Dutchman could no longer keep up with the two McLaren cars.

Telemetry data clearly highlights McLaren’s superiority, with Red Bull attempting to keep up in the first quarter of the race. The data also shows the gradual improvement of track conditions, leading to faster lap times until the safety car on lap 34 halted this trend.

The numbers are clear, underscoring McLaren’s dominance over its rivals, establishing it as the outright top team. After 33 laps, Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari, stuck behind Gorge Russell’s Mercedes, had already accumulated a 35-second gap to leader Norris—an extremely discouraging statistic. However, his pace was still insufficient to trouble his competitors. This highlights the SF-25’s struggles in the season opener, even before considering Ferrari’s strategic decisions.

The turning point from lap 34: safety car, strategies, and weather chaos
On lap 34, the race took a dramatic turn with the deployment of the safety car. All drivers pitted for hard slick tires, except the two Haas cars, which opted to stay on intermediates. The Dutchman gambled on mediums, a choice also made by Yuki Tsunoda and Alex Albon, but ultimately, it did not pay off.

The safety car withdrew on lap 41, but just three laps later, on lap 44, rain returned to soak the track. From that point, errors, crashes, and further interruptions followed, keeping the safety car out until lap 51.

At the restart, Lando Norris pulled away from Max Verstappen and managed the final six laps. Despite a minor mistake near the end, he maintained his position and secured the Grand Prix victory.

Conclusions: unclear pecking order but one certainty
The race conditions made it difficult to assess the true competitive hierarchy, factoring in strategic choices and team errors. After just one Grand Prix, especially in such variable weather and track conditions, it is too soon for definitive judgments. However, one fact stands out: McLaren currently appears to have the best technical package on the grid.

Red Bull remains competitive thanks to an extraordinary Max Verstappen, who can make a difference even with a car that, for now, does not seem to match the MCL39. Mercedes follows at a distance, while Ferrari—hampered by strategic errors and an SF-25 lacking performance—finds itself in a difficult, yet still uncertain, position.

Source: f1ingenerale