Hand of fate strikes Ferrari, but is ending already written in Abu Dhabi?. All the variables that could have potentially impacted McLaren, have instead hit Ferrari with unerring precision.

All the variables that could have potentially impacted McLaren, altering the Constructors’ Championship battle, have instead hit Ferrari with unerring precision. Leading up to the weekend, there were suggestions that McLaren’s 21-point advantage upon arriving at Yas Island could be less secure. “Something could happen with reliability,” or “a driver error is always around the corner.” These predictions have proven accurate, but so far, it’s Ferrari’s garage that has faced problems. Meanwhile, the “papaya” team is delivering one of its best weekends of the season, as demonstrated by their front-row lockout with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

After Friday’s blow (10-place grid penalty for Charles Leclerc due to a battery pack change), Ferrari’s misfortunes continued in qualifying with Leclerc breaching track limits. In a single moment, he went from leading Q2 to being a spectator in Q3.

As a result, Leclerc will start tomorrow from the back row of the grid. Despite this challenging situation, Ferrari’s car has shown promising performance. Until FP3, the potential of both Leclerc and Sainz was hard to gauge, but in qualifying, times improved steadily, culminating in Carlos Sainz securing third place.

Carlos Sainz could have made it to the front row if not for a mistake at the final corner, leaving him just 0.020 seconds behind Piastri. Nevertheless, his qualifying effort salvaged Ferrari’s weekend. Norris, with a 0.229-second lead, was out of reach.
“If this track consisted only of long straights and curves 6 and 7, I think we’d be flying here,” explained Carlos. “But unfortunately, there’s also turn 1 and turn 9, where McLaren is a step ahead of us. Their car is clearly well-suited to this type of circuit. It’s unfortunate that the final two races of the season were on tracks less favorable to us. But in the end, it’s not the tracks’ fault; we should have addressed this earlier.”

Carlos will still have a chance to aim for the podium in what will be his final race in red. What was vital for the Constructors’ title has now become more of a personal goal.
“The championship situation was already difficult before the weekend,” Carlos Sainz admitted. “Now we’ve made things even harder for ourselves. That said, it’s always best to wait and see until the checkered flag falls.”

Carlos expressed no regrets about the 0.020 seconds that kept him from the front row. “Of course, I left some time on the table in certain spots,” he explained, “but I just spoke with Lando, and he said the same thing—he lost time at turn 9. It’s the same for everyone, and I’m happy with how it went.”

Norris executed flawlessly, making the difference when it mattered most. Oscar Piastri had to rely on a second attempt after his first Q3 lap was deleted for track limits. Leclerc, like Piastri, made a mistake at a moment when there was no room for error.

It’s a matter of centimeters, small but crucial ones. The subsequent penalty is no minor setback—starting from the sixth row would have allowed Leclerc to be in the points zone from the early stages. Starting from the back row makes the opening phase, including tire management and overtaking, far more challenging.

Leclerc is likely to start with an alternate strategy, a final attempt to shake up the order while hoping for unpredictable circumstances. An engine change isn’t planned, as replacing the power unit is only allowed without penalties if issues arise after the engine is reactivated, a process permitted only five hours before the start. Otherwise, Leclerc would have to start from the pit lane—a gap difficult to recover, even with a fresher power unit. Adding further penalties to an already tough weekend for Leclerc isn’t in the plans.