Ferrari brought back down to earth: factors behind SF-25 struggles in Chinese GP qualifying. Ferrari goes from victory to the third row, McLaren on pole: what happened.

Saturday at the 5.451-kilometre Shanghai International Circuit begins with Lewis Hamilton’s victory in the Sprint race, demonstrating, along with Charles Leclerc, a Ferrari effective in terms of tire management. However, the picture changes within a few hours when Oscar Piastri finally manages to unleash the full potential of the excellent McLaren MCL39 single-seater, clinching pole position. The immediate thought goes to the increase in tire pressures imposed by Pirelli, but the result is mainly influenced by the evolution of setups in parc fermé, with an eye on the race after the warnings from the Sprint.

The morning Sprint delivers Lewis Hamilton’s first small victory in red, confirming a consistent race pace for Ferrari. The British champion is the only one able to maintain a steady 1.37.5 in the final laps, compared to Oscar Piastri’s 1.38.7 and Max Verstappen’s times exceeding 1.39. A key factor in Lewis Hamilton’s performance is his ability to run in clean air without aerodynamic disturbances. Meanwhile, the Red Bull rival suffers from his aggressive attempt to stay close to the Ferrari for over 10 laps, while the Australian pays the price for tire degradation following his overtake on the world champion.

Ferrari also finds encouragement in Charles Leclerc, who, after initial struggles, returns to podium contention in the final laps, despite the Maranello cars starting on used tires with six laps of wear, compared to Max Verstappen’s four and McLaren’s three, second only to Mercedes’ eight-lap-old tires. However, the Sprint highlights concerns over tire management for the Grand Prix, particularly on the front axle in fast corners, where some graining issues emerge.

Saturday’s race features more overtaking than usual, further proof of significant tire degradation creating pace differences between cars. Overtaking is certainly possible at the Shanghai International Circuit, provided drivers exit the long corner onto the back straight effectively. Ferrari’s difficulties in this sector prevent Charles Leclerc from reclaiming his position from George Russell. The Monegasque driver reported over the radio that they had a problem in Turn 13 and that the car was undriveable.. His words reinforce the picture of an SF-25 with a front-end focus but still stable in high-speed corners, inevitably paying the price with understeer on acceleration out of slow turns.

The afternoon qualifying raises questions about why the situation differs so much from previous sessions. Attention turns to the 1 psi increase in static tire pressures imposed by Pirelli due to the new track surface, which has a higher-than-expected grip level, leading to greater stress on the tires. Naturally, a more inflated tire has a smaller contact patch with the ground, providing less grip and deforming more, which generates additional heat and degradation.

However, this change was already in effect for the Sprint, with setup adjustments having a greater impact on the qualifying outcome. After the morning warnings, teams opted for less aggressive setups in preparation for Sunday’s Chinese Grand Prix, needing to manage the tires over longer distances and with more fuel on board. Lewis Hamilton commented that they had struggled a lot with the balance that afternoon and that the changes they made had given him much more oversteer.

Compared to Friday, Ferrari lost over two-tenths in the third sector, where times increased for everyone, especially Max Verstappen, who compensated by shaving off three-tenths in the first sector. Wind and higher-downforce configurations played a role, as shown by straight-line speed measurements, but so did traction difficulties in turns 12, 13, and 14 due to the oversteer balance of the Ferrari, which also led to overheating of the rear tires. The question is whether this was a deliberate choice to protect the front axle, the most critical for tire management in the race.

Charles Leclerc summed up the qualifying session by saying that the others improved, but they didn’t improve as much, acknowledging his rivals’ merits. Since Friday, McLaren had shown flashes of clear superiority, confirmed by Norris setting the best time in Q1 and Q2, followed by Oscar Piastri’s pole position in Q3. The British and Australian drivers gained six and three-tenths respectively from Friday, when an unfortunate pit exit timing had compromised their results. However, even on Saturday, Lando Norris made too many driving errors, which could be blamed both on him and the unpredictable nature of the MCL39 on a single lap.

George Russell took advantage of the situation, improving by four and a half tenths from Friday and placing his Mercedes on the front row. The Briton spoke of a W16 that “came to life” on the final attempt, finally hitting the right tire operating window after experimenting with various preparation strategies, including a double warm-up lap. Max Verstappen leads the third row, occupied by the two Ferrari drivers, eager to see if their setup choices will confirm the strong race pace shown in the Sprint. However, dirty air from traffic could complicate their plans for a repeat performance.

Despite a different pecking order, the second day of action in Shanghai confirms the previous day’s verdicts. McLaren shows a superior potential compared to its rivals, while Ferrari is still more competitive than the disastrous picture painted after the Australia Grand Prix weekend, with fast corners being its main strength. The closest challenger to the top four teams is Racing Bulls, with an impressive 6th place in the Sprint, followed by a double top-10 finish in qualifying. Notably, Esteban Ocon came close to reaching Q3, with a Haas that in Melbourne was last and struggling with aerodynamic instability. Also encouraging is Sauber’s Q2 appearance with Nico Hülkenberg, confirming that Gabriel Bortoleto’s similar result in Australia was not an isolated case. However, the race’s outcome, finally set to take place in dry conditions, remains completely open.

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