Ferrari: how technical triumph in Austin changes balance of power in final races of 2024 F1 season. Austin: Ferrari has made the most significant progress.

That Ferrari had race-winning pace in Austin was something we mentioned even before the weekend, being more confident this time as the signs seemed particularly strong. However, predicting a true domination like the one seen on the American track was clearly difficult. Since the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, where the corrections to the SF24 finally arrived after the terrible “post-Barcelona” races, the phrase that preceded any technical comment was, “we need to wait for more genuine and complete tracks, like Austin.”

The 5.513-kilometre Circuit of The Americas in Austin eventually arrived, and with it, a Ferrari one-two finish that wipes away any doubts about the quality of the aerodynamic corrective package and certifies a true revival of the SF24 for this final phase of the 2024 Formula 1 championship. As mentioned, the signs were there: one of the most significant was the competitiveness in the long corners of the second half of the Texas circuit. One of the issues hanging over Ferrari was aerodynamic stability in long corners. The triggering of bouncing led to platform instability that had to be remedied through suspension interventions which significantly penalized performance, often by raising the car or stiffening it excessively to somehow limit the phenomenon. In Austin, not only was this problem practically absent, but both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz were consistently the fastest in the second and third sectors, thanks to evident aerodynamic stability, likely also due to the ability to adopt ideal setups in terms of ride height, suspension stiffness, and aerodynamic load.

The chain benefits
The ability to run the rear end at lower heights improves its effectiveness, and a slightly softer setup on the rear suspension, made possible by the absence of bouncing, allows for better traction on corner exits, something clearly visible in the slow corner exits, with an “explosive” Ferrari whenever the drivers went full throttle. This was on a surface that was only partially smooth and that challenged other teams, as seen with Mercedes, where sudden load oscillations and loss of grip led to George Russell’s crash in the qualifying session and Lewis Hamilton’s incident during the race at the same spot. In short, it seems that the Maranello technicians and engineers have found the path of “chain benefits,” where solving a structural problem has brought about cascading improvements in many other competitiveness factors, leading the SF24 to become the dominant force with a margin on the Austin track. The reality is that, without the long-standing issue of managing the soft compound in qualifying, an issue that has been improved but not yet fully solved, and probably unsolvable with this year’s suspension system, Ferrari could have had a dominant weekend in qualifying as well, as Carlos Sainz was close to fighting for pole position and in the Sprint, where the internal battle between the drivers likely prevented them from catching Max Verstappen.

Charles Leclerc perfect: smart, fast, and capable of managing
In all of this, Charles Leclerc’s performance stands out, showing his ability to anticipate and prepare for what would happen at the start, then seizing the opportunity to take the lead of the race. From there, the Monegasque driver left Max Verstappen and the rest of the field behind, building over a 10-second lead by mid-race, with a first stint on medium tires that was truly perfect in terms of speed and consistent pace. After the pit stop, the Monegasque driver was able to control the race from a distance, fast when needed, and managing at other times, even attempting a couple of fastest lap runs, although they were thwarted by those further back who had fresher tires in the final laps. Of course, Carlos Sainz also had a very good race, though initially stuck behind Max Verstappen. The Spaniard then brought his Ferrari to second place with a relatively easy undercut on the Dutchman, further proof of Ferrari’s superior pace in this race at the Austin circuit.

Behind the two Ferrari SF-24 cars, the battle for the drivers’ title saw yet another direct clash between the two contenders, and once again Max Verstappen came out the clear winner. Lando Norris finished in fourth place in a race where he started from pole position, but held the lead for only a few hundred meters. McLaren was actually the second strongest on track, but their race was compromised by both the start and a too-conservative first stint on the tires, on a track where overtaking was not impossible. The communication from the engineer to Lando Norris, stating that the team expected a tire advantage of up to 2 seconds by the end of the race, remains one of the most controversial moments and shows how McLaren’s degradation model was evidently poorly calibrated. The fear of the front axle breaking down, as seen in the Sprint, prevailed, despite the fact that the setup for the Grand Prix had been significantly adjusted and the MCL38 had a race pace inferior only to Ferrari’s.

After the glaring mistake at the start, Lando Norris was unable to find a way past Max Verstappen and lost focus again during one of his best opportunities to launch an attack, further diminishing his already slim hopes for the 2024 Formula 1 championship. The reality is that between the two, Max Verstappen undoubtedly deserves the title, as a complete champion who was able, even in this race, to extract the maximum and more from his Red Bull. The car from Milton Keynes seemed to have emerged from the dark crisis it faced in the middle of the championship, but at the same time, it never had particularly fast pace, except when Max Verstappen was able to push it to its limit. Sergio Perez, who started tenth, was caught and passed by George Russell, who started from the pit lane, leaving the doubt that the RB20 might be more stable and easier to drive, but not necessarily faster in the race compared to its recent struggles. Only the upcoming races will clarify this.

As for Mercedes, George Russell’s incredible comeback showed interesting potential, but also revealed a car whose updates have not cured the original problem of being extremely sensitive to every external factor, with a particularly narrow optimal operating window. Regarding the quality of the updates introduced by Toto Wolff‘s team, it’s notable that using the latest components introduced in Austin, both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton ended up in the wall (in the same corner), while Russell, forced to race with the Singapore version of the car, made an impressive comeback, confirming the difficulties engineers have in finding on-track results that truly match what is detected in the wind tunnel.

With five races remaining in the 2024 Formula 1 Championship, making predictions seems more complicated than ever. Based on what we saw in the American weekend, one reflection is that if McLaren was indeed faster than Red Bull in terms of pace, and Mercedes was potentially in a similar performance range, the balance between these teams has not shifted significantly compared to the last few races. The team that seems to have made the most significant progress is Ferrari, which now has the responsibility to try to be the main player in the final part of one of the most exciting Formula 1 seasons ever.