F1, Ferrari: will SF-23 updates be enough to match Red Bull?

Definition of surprise effect: something that is caused by an unforeseen, unexpected event that generates amazement. Since we are talking about an unpredictable event, the surprise can also in fact have a negative side. This is somewhat what happened to Ferrari at the beginning of the 2023 Formula One championship.

In Maranello they suddenly opened their eyes already during the winter pre-season testing session at the Bahrain International Circuit, when they understood that the Red Bull RB19 was a single-seater unmatchable for the SF-23, the car of unfulfilled hopes. But the hardest blow was probably dealt when it emerged that there was even another car ahead in terms of performance: the Aston Martin AMR23.

If at the beginning it was thought that the green car was hiding or carrying out a different work schedule during the pre-season testing session, the grand prix held on the same track, Sakhir, demonstrated how the car designed by Dan Fallows was generally more consistent than the Ferrari car. Especially where and when it counts the most, namely in the race.

And we haven’t mentioned the Mercedes W14. As if that weren’t enough, after the Bahrain start, even the “Black Arrow” began to go faster than the Ferrari single-seater who recent lost its ‘conceptual father’, namely David Sanchez who left the Maranello team for British shores without warning and without saying goodbye. hello. Ferrari peculiarities.

Carlos Sainz, during an event organized by one of his sponsors, did not want to hide the fact that for Scuderia Ferrari there was a general sense of bewilderment in observing the performance of other cars and in realizing the inferiority of the SF-23. Also because the gains that were found in the simulator (and that were seen on the track, even if not as much) were thought to be enough to match a Red Bull team that had to deal with the limitations deriving from the technical balance of performance and the fine imposed by the International Federation for the infringement of the cost cap.

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“The truth is that it hasn’t been an easy start to the season. All of us at Ferrari expected much more. After fighting for pole positions and victories last year, we went to the races of this world championship with the same intention. We were surprised by the speed of Red Bull and the improvements of other teams like Aston Martin. We have to work hard at the factory to make improvements and to get back to fighting for the win. The objectives are clear: to get back on the podium as soon as possible and win again“. These were the comments of the former McLaren man.

Desires, dreams, immaterial concepts which, in order to become real, need certain conditions to be fulfilled. The first, clearly, is that the SF-23 is able to progress in a sensitive and immediate way thanks to the update plan put in place by the Italian engineers and which was anticipated by Frédéric Vasseur himself. In the next few races we should start to see the first innovations installed on the car in a gradual process which should lead, within 4-5 grands prix, to the completion of the factory-set programme.

Ferrari: will the updates be enough to catch up with Red Bull?
But this may not be enough because the advantage accumulated by Red Bull could be even greater than that shown up to now, given that there is a clear feeling that both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez, when they could, managed they pace, hiding the true performance of the impressive car designed by by Adrian Newey.

“It is true that, with the advantage that Red Bull has at the moment, we will have to improve a lot if we want to be in the fight for the win,” explained Carlos who then, in an act of extreme realism, stated that currently Ferrari has to be ready to take advantage of any technical issues that could affect their rivals: “In some races I think something could happen to the Red Bulls and Aston Martins and so we can get back in the lead”.

At the moment Ferrari have a very modest tally of only 26 points. After three races, it is almost 100 points away from Red Bull and two other teams are interspersed between Maranello and Milton Keynes. This certifies the worst start of the Italian team in the turbo-hybrid era. A condition which was also reached due to Charles Leclerc’s retirement in the first Grand Prix of the season and the penalty imposed on Carlos Sainz at the end of the Australian Grand Prix.

But the 12 points missing from the Spaniard’s record would not have changed the scenario. We are talking about ‘water that does not quench your thirst’ because what is lacking is the pure performance of the SF-23. Carlos expressed a concept that almost seems like an act of surrender or adaptation to a condition from which he hardly believes he can escape: “I keep thinking that, until it is mathematically possible, we must try to win races, get the maximum points and improve. And that’s what we did in these first few races.”

Talking about mathematics at this stage of the year seems a bit premature. Carlos Sainz seems to give the idea of a team which, realizing that it can no longer reach the top, speaks of much less ambitious targets. Of course, with 20 more races to go, we can’t completely shut Ferrari out of a chance to win. But are the key people of the Maranello team really convinced of this?

The problem is that, to date, it seems that it is not possible to systematically be on the top step of the podium or at least try to fight for it. Ferrari, before catching Red Bull, if it ever manages to do so, will have to overcome Mercedes and Aston Martin, two aggressive teams who have expressed their intention to bring further modified cars to also try to reduce the gap to the top of the group.

Perhaps, from this point of view, despite the criticisms we have recently expressed towards him, Stefano Domenicali is not entirely wrong: Formula One has reached such a level of consolidation of values that it has truly become a highly spectacular category. If Red Bull didn’t exist, which is killing everything and everyone.

“Too bad” that in Milton Keynes they worked better than others and at this moment they represent a real unreachable target. After all, boredom is the flip side of meritocracy, a value that we would always like to see protected.