Ferrari faces uncertainty over race pace: starting from behind complicates matters | Sprint Race in Qatar. For Ferrari, assessing long-run performance at the Lusail circuit is more challenging.

Scuderia Ferrari is set for a challenging comeback in the Qatar Sprint Race. Despite performing well in free practice, the Maranello team’s car struggled with understeer during the sprint qualifying session on soft tires. While significant effort was put into optimizing performance over a single lap, the drivers couldn’t fully exploit the potential of the tires in SQ3. Regarding race pace, Charles Leclerc fared better than his teammate thanks to the experimental floor, although neither driver focused specifically on long-run simulations.

Work carried out by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz on the hard tires alternated between push laps and race-pace laps, relying solely on adjustments to the engine map. Interestingly, both Ferrari drivers bedded in two sets of medium tires with simple out-laps. This approach aimed to stabilize the tires for the main race and mitigate the early graining issues seen in Las Vegas. In contrast, McLaren, Mercedes, and Red Bull devoted the middle portion of free practice to more extensive high-fuel runs on medium tires with heavier fuel loads.

Max Verstappen approached testing differently, running nearly two seconds slower than his competitors. From the on-board footage, it was evident that the Dutchman maintained stable tire temperatures and executed the longest simulation among the top drivers. His performance improved progressively as the car’s fuel load decreased, with minimal signs of tire wear. Meanwhile, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri ran with lighter fuel loads. Oscar Piastri was the fastest on track, finishing over a second ahead of his teammate.

Looking closer at McLaren, the team adopted differing fuel strategies, with Oscar Piastri simulating the Sprint Race using a fuel load comparable to that of the Ferrari drivers. However, Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, trailing by about half a second, were disadvantaged by their tire compound. Additionally, they had logged more laps on the white-banded Pirellis, which delivered less consistent performance. These factors complicate any direct comparisons and make definitive conclusions elusive.

On the other hand, Lando Norris‘ run aligns more closely with the Mercedes duo of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, who used roughly half-full fuel tanks. The Mercedes drivers completed around 10 laps each, gathering a wealth of data for their engineers. The seven-time world champion carried a heavier fuel load than his teammate, which affected his cornering speed. George Russell, in contrast, displayed better traction but compromised corner entry to prioritize exit speed.

These differing strategies across teams leave many variables to consider ahead of the Sprint Race, setting the stage for an intriguing battle.

An analysis of tire wear data reveals that, overall, the feared graining issue caused by low track temperatures was absent. Unlike in Las Vegas, drivers were able to maintain a lower slip angle without damaging the compound in the opening laps, allowing them to push throughout an entire stint. This season, tire degradation appears to be less pronounced, thanks to cooler temperatures, less aggressive track surface texture, and smoothed curbs. These factors have given drivers greater confidence in tire management.

Focusing on specifics, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, and Max Verstappen demonstrated similar improvements despite following different work programs in the same competitive setting. Only in the final portion of his stint did George Russell’s performance decline slightly, but overall, the W15 looks capable of competing for top positions in terms of race pace. The combination of lower temperatures and a stiffer suspension setup enabled the Mercedes car to perform well even on a circuit that is not traditionally favorable to its strengths.

The technical team opted for a setup that generates sufficient tire temperature without causing overheating. Additionally, the car’s stable platform allows the floor to operate effectively, though at the cost of some mid-corner speed. For Ferrari, assessing long-run performance is more challenging. However, their tire management with Medium and Hard compounds seems solid. During free practice, the drivers found a good thermal balance in the tires, which translated into better performance as the car’s fuel load decreased.

Ferrari’s primary challenge remains the activation and temperature retention of the soft compound, especially at the front. This tire is unlikely to be used in the race, with the Medium compound expected to be the preferred choice for the Sprint Race. Even so, starting further back on the grid significantly complicates Ferrari’s battle with McLaren. The drivers will likely aim to attack at the start, aware of the difficulty of overtaking on the Qatar circuit. This strategy will require careful tire management and a hope for stronger pace in the closing laps.