Bahrain Test Analysis: Ferrari chases Red Bull thanks to enhanced front-end

Scuderia Ferrari tested the SF-24 in Bahrain, the stage for the F1 2024 pre-season testing session, offering teams a total of 24 hours to thoroughly evaluate their cars ahead of the new championship. Despite two major interruptions due to an improperly secured manhole cover, it must be said that the schedules were largely respected. It may be useful, then, to draw a line and make assessments based on what has been seen: let’s try to compose a hypothetical starting grid for the Bahrain GP, scheduled for next Saturday.

Some premises need to be made: as every year, the excitement of seeing the cars on track clouds judgment. It’s important not to draw definitive conclusions since there are multiple variables that affect the collected data: engine modes, hybrid management, and fuel loads, for example, are uncertainties (although indicative power levels can be estimated) that make it more challenging to assess lap or long-run performances. How do we proceed, then?

F1 2024: The hypothetical performance line up to the top ten

It is more useful to evaluate the overall behavior of the car, mostly independent of the factors just mentioned. Analysis of ease of driving or response to setup changes appears to be much more appropriate factors for gauging the competitiveness of the cars compared to mere lap times. Let’s start, then, from the bottom of our hypothetical grid: the tenth place will probably be contested between Williams and Haas.

For the Grove team, the 3-day stint in Bahrain was anything but smooth. Williams, in fact, was the team that completed the fewest laps of all, just 299, and faced a series of technical issues that slowed down their work. The FW46 is still in the study phase. While the aerodynamic design has not been revolutionized, the mechanical aspect has: as mentioned, the English team chose to build an entirely new pull-rod rear suspension, rejecting the already prepared Mercedes push-rod.

Team Principal James Vowles, former technician of the Brackley team, explained that internal evaluations chose to present a pull-rod scheme at the rear, as it is easier to understand and implement in the project compared to the benefits offered by the Mercedes solution. Adopting the rear push would have meant repositioning the new, shorter Mercedes transmission and at the same time working not to compromise the aerodynamic balance of the rear.

Despite the small stumbling blocks, the FW46 seemed challenging to drive. Sargeant, in particular, still shows a lack of feeling with the car, which seems very focused on the front and “dancing” at the rear. Albon, on the other hand, did not perform badly, showing consistency and speed, despite losing half of the first day due to a technical issue. Achieving seventh place in the constructors’ standings is an objective for Williams, but it will be very difficult to replicate at the moment given the steps forward of some competitors.

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It’s challenging to talk about progress for Haas, however: the disastrous 2023 F1 campaign, perhaps one of the reasons for Gunther Steiner’s dismissal, ended with a meager harvest and a tire-consuming car. Despite the change in philosophy that began in Austin 2023, Magnussen and Hulkenberg’s car continued to present this chronic problem towards tire wear. For this simple reason, many appreciated novelties on the VF24 are aimed at a clear goal: reducing stress on tires.

It is not surprising, therefore, that both drivers of the American team are at the bottom of the time charts but at the top of laps completed. Many medium-to-long stint simulations have been completed, with several more consistent trends compared to last season, especially with Nico. Nevertheless, it will be very difficult for the team led by new Team Principal Komatsu to leave the fight to avoid being the tail end of the grid.

In eighth place, the unpronounceable Stake Kick Sauber F1 Team. Not noticing it on the track is an undertaking, given the eccentric livery, while it is less visible when looking at performance: Zhou and Bottas are in the middle of the combined rankings, both for lap times and laps completed, perfectly sizing up what will be, barring major twists, the Sauber team’s season. The C44 dared by mounting a pull-rod at the front, but it probably is still far from the optimal setup.

Often, when it was framed, it was noticed as a poorly balanced car, subject to many rear-end snaps and stability problems in braking. Bottas, on this aspect, emphasized the difficulties of driving, while Zhou defended well, also showing an interesting insight on the last day of testing. The feeling is that Sauber will hardly deviate from seventh place in the overall standings, waiting for Audi to take over the team and recalibrate the team’s ambitions.

Seventh place for an intangible Alpine: the French team is the real enigma of these pre-season tests. On one hand, the drivers are satisfied with the progress, especially Ocon, on the other hand, we find a car that has never shone either on lap times or long runs. A true race simulation has not been completed, as the team has limited itself to runs of a maximum of 8/10 laps.

On the other hand, a car that is very difficult to drive and far from the ideal operating window has been seen. The major changes to the A524, in all likelihood, still need to be studied in depth and recalibrated through “fine-tuning,” leaving many uncertainties about where Alpine stands at the moment. Do they know something we don’t? Likely. Will they suddenly find themselves fighting for podiums? Probably not.

Fifth place, for now, is contested between Visa Cash App Racing Bulls and Aston Martin: the former Alpha Tauri, thanks to the technical legacy received from the RB19, has taken giant steps forward. The VCARB01 is effective in the hands of Tsunoda and Ricciardo, fast, balanced, and consistent. The simulations are interesting, while there is still a lack of a true highlight in terms of lap times. That said, the pull-rod at the front seems to have unlocked profitable setup choices, so the team aims to sail steadily in the top 5.

The giant steps of Visa Cash App Racing Bulls are apparently countered by those of Aston Martin behind. If last year, in Alonso’s hands, the AMR23 appeared as a surprise during testing and even capable of threatening Red Bull, this year the feeling is quite different. The technical choices on the AMR24, as we have seen, are extreme and courageous; however, the car does not seem to be perfectly in the hands of Fernando and Lance.

There are very few glimpses of competitiveness, mainly from Alonso, seen only on the last day. All this indicates that the Silverstone team is still trying to understand its own car by exploring very different setup choices. At the moment, the team does not seem able to replicate the performace seen in the first half of last season, but with a hungry Alonso (and hunting for a seat in 2025), anything can be expected.

F1 2024: Ferrari sees itself as the most accredited competitor to challenge the formidable Red Bull RB20

Before evaluating the performance of Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes, it is easier to award the title of test champion to Red Bull. The RB20 seems to have already secured the title in Bahrain. The car in Max Verstappen’s hands seems simply unbeatable, perfectly balanced, as if on rails, and, according to rumors, with a lot of fuel on board hiding the true potential. The ease of driving that transpired from Max’s onboard on the third day of testing was so high that the impression was that he was going slow.

In short, it seems that the bar has been raised again, and credit goes once again to the genius mind of Adrian Newey who has produced an even more extreme and faster car. If there were doubts about the functioning of the new radiator inlets or the new cooling system designed specifically for the RB20 chassis, they were quickly resolved. To leave nothing out, Red Bull also tested the new discs developed in partnership with Brembo, obtaining excellent feedback and advancing with work that was expected for the middle of the season.

Given the relative tranquility of their lead, the debut could be anticipated at the first race in Bahrain. Red Bull being the team to beat was known, but the fact that by completely overhauling the car they remain firmly at the top once again highlights their intention to annihilate challengers. Let’s focus now on the trio that will play the role of the first challenger to Red Bull: among McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari, the car that currently seems slightly behind is the papaya-colored one.

Norris himself confirmed in a press conference that some hitches have ruined the work plan, especially concerning long runs with a fuel load. At the moment, the Englishman claims to be fighting for third place in the constructors, with Red Bull and Ferrari comfortably ahead and Mercedes competing for the lowest step of our grid’s podium. The data collected on the track, as well as the sensations from the onboard, only confirm these statements.

A downsizing of McLaren’s ambitions after the significant placements achieved in the second half of the 2023 season was plausible. However, one should not underestimate the development skills of the team that has already been able to completely turn around a season that started not optimally. Mercedes is a question mark: the car is entirely new but decidedly not yet optimally set up. On the flying lap, it shows instability on corner entry, marked by many lock-ups and sudden snaps.

Much better, however, in long runs, emphasizing that with full tanks, the W15 is more balanced and easy to drive. Regardless, both Russell and Hamilton confirm the progress compared to last season, emphasizing that the car needs more downforce (and therefore grip) to go really fast. Surprisingly, Technical Director James Allison’s words suggest that the W15 is even better than the Ferrari in race pace and is therefore capable of fighting for the podium alongside the red one.

Let’s conclude with Ferrari: on the eve of the tests, there was much anticipation, almost nerve-wracking, to understand how the SF-24 would perform. Ready, set, on the track, the car immediately responded well in every situation and on every compound. Beyond the 1-2 marked in the combined time chart, what is encouraging is the simplicity with which Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc achieved the time. A year ago, it was emphasized that the car had difficulty hitting the apex of the corners, suffering from understeer that was difficult to resolve.

On the contrary, the SF-24 seems more prone to oversteer, not of a sudden or deleterious type but predictable and manageable by the drivers. Not surprisingly, the Ferrari’s cornering abilities have benefited significantly: in the medium-slow corners that characterize the Sakhir circuit, the red car has shown qualities not inferior to the RB20, emphasizing the steps forward made on the front end. It is also known that a car focused on the front is more congenial to Charles Leclerc’s driving style, who has shown cautious optimism.

The feeling is that at Maranello, they know they have done a good job, but at the same time, Red Bull remains firmly ahead. It is difficult to indicate the gap that currently separates the red from the top, and for us, it doesn’t even make sense to try. The starting point is excellent, and it is now more than ever up to the development plan already set to further close the gap. All that remains is to wait for a few days when the cards will finally be revealed to understand who made the right choices and who will have to roll up their sleeves.